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PK-35 vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkösliiga 2026

PK-35
PK-35
Preview
16:00
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
10/17/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group Stage
Big match
49%
PK-35
model favours
49%25%26%

PK-35 are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

PK-3549%
×Draw25%
SJK Akatemia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.61
SJK Akatemia
1.11

PK-35 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.40
SJK Akatemia
1.14

allows per match

PK-35
1.09
SJK Akatemia
1.83

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
74%
PK-35 or SJK Akatemia
75%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
51%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
26%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
80%
PK-35 2+ goals
48%
PK-35 3+ goals
22%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
67%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
30%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
65%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.40 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

SJK Akatemia attack 1.14 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PK-35 scores more
49%
level
25%
SJK Akatemia scores more
26%

PK-35 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • SJK Akatemia score first in only 14% of matches
  • PK-35 have scored in 9 games running
  • PK-35 score first in only 29% of matches
  • SJK Akatemia win just 19% of their away games
  • SJK Akatemia win just 9% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
PK-35
DWWWW
Akatemia
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PK-35 vs SJK Akatemia — Match Preview

PK-35 face SJK Akatemia on October 17, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.