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PK-35 vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

PK-35
PK-35
Preview
16:00
JäPS
JäPS
8/21/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group Stage
Big match
47%
PK-35
model favours
47%24%29%

PK-35 are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

PK-3547%
×Draw24%
JäPS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.71
JäPS
1.28

PK-35 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.40
JäPS
1.47

allows per match

PK-35
1.09
JäPS
2.03

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
71%
PK-35 or JäPS
76%
Draw or JäPS
53%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
25%
JäPS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
82%
PK-35 2+ goals
51%
PK-35 3+ goals
24%
JäPS 1+ goals
72%
JäPS 2+ goals
37%
JäPS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
62%
JäPS (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.40 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

JäPS attack 1.47 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PK-35 scores more
47%
level
24%
JäPS scores more
29%

PK-35 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • JäPS score first in only 12% of matches
  • PK-35 have scored in 9 games running
  • PK-35 score first in only 29% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — PK-35 1 vs JäPS 2
  • JäPS win just 21% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • 35% of PK-35’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
PK-35
DWWWW
JäPS
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PK-35 face JäPS (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with PK-35 hosting JäPS. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.