PK-35 4–1 JäPS: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

PK-35

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

JäPS

S. Uchiyama 70'

M. Beyai 67'

E. Markkanen 51' (pen)

S. Sillah 47'

T. Palmasto 26'

6/11/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 11Algeco Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

PK-3547%

×Draw24%

JäPS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35Expected goals in this matchJäPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.28

PK-35

1.71

JäPS

1.28

PK-35 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.40

creates per match

1.47

1.09

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

PK-35

1.40

JäPS

1.47

allows per match

PK-35

1.09

JäPS

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par

JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

JäPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw

71%

PK-35 or JäPS

76%

Draw or JäPS

53%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+

25%

JäPS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals

82%

PK-35 2+ goals

51%

PK-35 3+ goals

24%

JäPS 1+ goals

72%

JäPS 2+ goals

37%

JäPS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)

62%

JäPS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.40 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

JäPS attack 1.47 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PK-35 scores more

47%

level

24%

JäPS scores more

29%

PK-35 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

35'

37'

46'

47'

51'

A. Ramstrom

51'

E. MarkkanenPenalty

54'

T. Andberg

55'

H. Khayat← Y. Sasabe

55'

V. Ahola← L. Rönnberg

56'

M. Beyai← E. Markkanen

66'

J. Pikkuhookana← F. Manneh

67'

M. Beyai

70'

S. Uchiyama

77'

A. Hellemaa← R. Autio

77'

W. Oguchi← O. Jama

81'

T. Kurvinen← D. Rantanen

81'

X. Gela← J. Nakanishi

83'

J. Pikkuhookana

90+1'

X. Gela

PK-35

JäPS

30

Laiho

16

▼

Autio

2

⚽

Palmasto

4

Ramström

14

Tapani

6

▼

Jama

19

Kuosa

8

▼

Sasabe

11

Sadik

21

Holopaine

29

▼

25

34

6

19

⚽

Uchiyama

22

Lokake

7

▼

Rantanen

20

▼

Nakanishi

9

⚽

▼

Markkanen

8

Adam

14

▼

Tiquinho

11

▼

Manneh

Manager: Tiago Santos

46'▲S. Sillah←▼Tiquinho

56'▲M. Beyai←▼E. Markkanen

66'▲J. Pikkuhookana←▼F. Manneh

81'▲T. Kurvinen←▼D. Rantanen

81'▲X. Gela←▼J. Nakanishi

PK-35 substitutes

23Sillah10Beyai88Pikkuhookana2Kurvinen5Gela21Räsänen30Abdi

Manager: E. Ates

55'▲H. Khayat←▼Y. Sasabe

55'▲V. Ahola←▼L. Rönnberg

77'▲A. Hellemaa←▼R. Autio

77'▲W. Oguchi←▼O. Jama

JäPS substitutes

7Khayat10Ahola13Hellemaa20Oguchi5Arminen31Tiainen97Kamara

PK-35 4 – 1 JäPS

PK-35 beat JäPS 4-1 in Ykkösliiga on June 11, 2024.

Goals: T. Palmasto (26'), S. Sillah (47'), E. Markkanen (51' pen), M. Beyai (67'), S. Uchiyama (70').

The match was played at Algeco Areena TN in Helsinki.

PK-35 vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

PK-35 4 – 1 JäPS