PK-35 2–2 JäPS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

PK-35

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

JäPS

Y. Adam 37'

M. Medina 16'

H. Khayat 85'

T. Palmasto 70' (pen)

6/18/2022

Ykkönen · Round 7MagneCit Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

PK-3553%

×Draw23%

JäPS24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35Expected goals in this matchJäPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.21

PK-35

1.89

JäPS

1.21

PK-35 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.59

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

PK-35

1.59

JäPS

1.19

allows per match

PK-35

1.22

JäPS

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par

JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

JäPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw

76%

PK-35 or JäPS

77%

Draw or JäPS

47%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+

30%

JäPS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals

85%

PK-35 2+ goals

56%

PK-35 3+ goals

29%

JäPS 1+ goals

70%

JäPS 2+ goals

34%

JäPS 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)

69%

JäPS (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.59 + JäPS defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.89

JäPS attack 1.19 + PK-35 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PK-35 scores more

53%

level

23%

JäPS scores more

24%

PK-35 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Medina

28'

R. Heidari

37'

Y. Adam

46'

W. Haapiainen← O. García

55'

V. Meriläinen← T. Lehtimäki

68'

N. Kaijasilta← M. Medina

70'

T. PalmastoPenalty

72'

J. Arila

80'

J. Holopainen← A. Ulmanen

85'

H. Khayat

89'

H. Mohamed← M. Beyai

PK-35

JäPS

1

Laiho

16

Autio

2

⚽

5

8

17

10

19

7

⚽

Khayat

88

▼

Ulmanen

11

▼

1

3

18

21

16

70

⚽

▼

Medina

23

Tainio

4

Jama

8

⚽

Adam

14

▼

Beyai

11

▼

García

Manager: K. Raimi

46'▲W. Haapiainen←▼O. García

68'▲N. Kaijasilta←▼M. Medina

89'▲H. Mohamed←▼M. Beyai

PK-35 substitutes

9Haapiainen10Kaijasilta17Mohamed6Aaltonen19Isotalo29Markhiyev30Knuuttila

Manager: O. Partonen

55'▲V. Meriläinen←▼T. Lehtimäki

80'▲J. Holopainen←▼A. Ulmanen

JäPS substitutes

20Meriläinen14Holopainen4Abdi21Mehmeti22Kassim26Mahdi99Mustafa

PK-35 2 – 2 JäPS

PK-35 and JäPS drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on June 18, 2022.

Goals: M. Medina (16'), Y. Adam (37'), T. Palmasto (70' pen), H. Khayat (85').

The match was played at MagneCit Areena TN in Helsinki.

PK-35 vs JäPS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

PK-35 2 – 2 JäPS