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PK-35 vs Haka — Ykkösliiga 2026

PK-35
PK-35
Preview
16:00
Haka
Haka
7/31/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageMarkku.fi Areena
Big match
37%
Haka
model favours
34%29%37%

PK-35 are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PK-3534%
×Draw29%
Haka37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.05
Haka
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 7 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.40
Haka
1.14

allows per match

PK-35
1.09
Haka
0.71

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
63%
PK-35 or Haka
71%
Draw or Haka
66%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
13%
Haka wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
65%
PK-35 2+ goals
28%
PK-35 3+ goals
9%
Haka 1+ goals
67%
Haka 2+ goals
30%
Haka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
48%
Haka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Haka away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.40 + Haka defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Haka attack 1.14 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PK-35 scores more
34%
level
29%
Haka scores more
37%

Haka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • PK-35 have scored in 9 games running
  • PK-35 score first in only 29% of matches
  • 69% of Haka’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — PK-35 1 vs Haka 4
  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 0.7 goals
  • 35% of PK-35’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
PK-35
DWWWW
Haka
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PK-35 host Haka

July 31, 2026: PK-35 take on Haka in Ykkösliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

PK-35 host Haka at Markku.fi Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.