PK-35 Vantaa W 1–1 Åland United W: Result & Stats

PK-35 Vantaa W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Åland United W

7/27/2024

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 13Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

PK-35 Vantaa W32%

×Draw23%

Åland United W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35 Vantaa WExpected goals in this matchÅland United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.84

PK-35 Vantaa W

1.52

Åland United W

1.84

Åland United W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

1.60

creates per match

2.23

1.45

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

PK-35 Vantaa W

1.60

Åland United W

2.23

allows per match

PK-35 Vantaa W

1.45

Åland United W

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35 Vantaa W+0.00on par

Åland United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 Vantaa W ↓

Åland United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

PK-35 Vantaa W or draw

55%

PK-35 Vantaa W or Åland United W

77%

Draw or Åland United W

68%

Winning margin

PK-35 Vantaa W wins by 2+

15%

Åland United W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

PK-35 Vantaa W 1+ goals

78%

PK-35 Vantaa W 2+ goals

45%

PK-35 Vantaa W 3+ goals

20%

Åland United W 1+ goals

84%

Åland United W 2+ goals

55%

Åland United W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

PK-35 Vantaa W (draw refunded)

41%

Åland United W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 Vantaa W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Åland United W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.44 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 Vantaa W attack 1.60 + Åland United W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Åland United W attack 2.23 + PK-35 Vantaa W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PK-35 Vantaa W scores more

32%

level

23%

Åland United W scores more

45%

Åland United W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åland United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff