Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–2 Indy Eleven

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Indy Eleven

6/1/2024

USL Championship · Round 14Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds54%

×Draw25%

Indy Eleven21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.91

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.61

Indy Eleven

0.91

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 77% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 130 away

1.64

creates per match

1.10

0.72

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.64

Indy Eleven

1.10

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.72

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw

79%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Indy Eleven

75%

Draw or Indy Eleven

46%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

29%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

80%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

48%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

22%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

60%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

23%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

72%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.72 · 133 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.64 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

54%

level

25%

Indy Eleven scores more

21%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff