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Piteå W vs Uppsala W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Piteå W
Piteå W
Preview
12:00
Uppsala W
Uppsala W
8/23/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 15LF Arena
Big match
54%
Piteå W
model favours
54%22%23%

Piteå W score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Piteå W54%
×Draw22%
Uppsala W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå W
1.91
Uppsala W
1.18

Piteå W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

creates per match

Piteå W
1.32
Uppsala W
1.10

allows per match

Piteå W
1.25
Uppsala W
2.50

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par
Uppsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Uppsala W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw
77%
Piteå W or Uppsala W
78%
Draw or Uppsala W
46%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+
31%
Uppsala W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals
85%
Piteå W 2+ goals
57%
Piteå W 3+ goals
30%
Uppsala W 1+ goals
69%
Uppsala W 2+ goals
33%
Uppsala W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)
70%
Uppsala W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Uppsala W away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Uppsala W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Uppsala W attack 1.10 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Piteå W scores more
54%
level
22%
Uppsala W scores more
23%

Piteå W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Piteå W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Piteå W fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWL
W
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Piteå W face Uppsala W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with Piteå W hosting Uppsala W. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Piteå W host Uppsala W at LF Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.