Piteå W 0–3 Rosengård W: Result & Stats

Piteå W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Rosengård W

11/8/2020

Damallsvenskan · Round 21LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Piteå W24%

×Draw24%

Rosengård W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piteå WExpected goals in this matchRosengård W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.76

Piteå W

1.11

Rosengård W

1.76

Rosengård W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

1.32

creates per match

2.27

1.25

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Piteå W

1.32

Rosengård W

2.27

allows per match

Piteå W

1.25

Rosengård W

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par

Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Rosengård W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw

48%

Piteå W or Rosengård W

76%

Draw or Rosengård W

76%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+

9%

Rosengård W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals

67%

Piteå W 2+ goals

30%

Piteå W 3+ goals

10%

Rosengård W 1+ goals

83%

Rosengård W 2+ goals

52%

Rosengård W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)

31%

Rosengård W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Rosengård W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rosengård W attack 2.27 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Piteå W scores more

24%

level

24%

Rosengård W scores more

52%

Rosengård W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff