Piteå W vs Norrköping W: Preview & Prediction

Piteå W

Preview

12:00

Norrköping W

10/3/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 21LF Arena

Big match

38%

Piteå W

model favours

38%26%36%

Piteå W score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Piteå W38%

×Draw26%

Norrköping W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piteå WExpected goals in this matchNorrköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Piteå W

1.32

Norrköping W

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

1.32

creates per match

1.30

1.25

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Piteå W

1.32

Norrköping W

1.30

allows per match

Piteå W

1.25

Norrköping W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par

Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Norrköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw

64%

Piteå W or Norrköping W

74%

Draw or Norrköping W

62%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+

17%

Norrköping W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals

73%

Piteå W 2+ goals

38%

Piteå W 3+ goals

15%

Norrköping W 1+ goals

72%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

36%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)

52%

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Piteå W scores more

38%

level

26%

Norrköping W scores more

36%

Piteå W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Norrköping W score first in only 25% of matches
Piteå W have won 6 of the last 7 meetings
Norrköping W win just 20% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Piteå W play Direct / counter-attacking, Norrköping W Defensively solid
Piteå W fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.5 expected)