Piteå W 0–3 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Piteå W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Häcken W

C. Larisey 90+2'

R. Kafaji 18', 14'

5/26/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 10LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Piteå W21%

×Draw23%

Häcken W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piteå WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.76

Piteå W

0.98

Häcken W

1.76

Häcken W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 58 away

1.32

creates per match

2.28

1.25

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Piteå W

1.32

Häcken W

2.28

allows per match

Piteå W

1.25

Häcken W

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw

44%

Piteå W or Häcken W

77%

Draw or Häcken W

79%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+

7%

Häcken W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals

62%

Piteå W 2+ goals

26%

Piteå W 3+ goals

8%

Häcken W 1+ goals

83%

Häcken W 2+ goals

52%

Häcken W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)

27%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.98

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Piteå W scores more

21%

level

23%

Häcken W scores more

56%

Häcken W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Kafaji

18'

R. Kafaji

46'

C. Edlund← F. Ikidi Michael

64'

S. Henriksson← R. Aronsson

65'

Á. Johannesen← H. Andersson

79'

A. Imo

80'

E. Viklund← O. Holm

90+2'

C. Larisey

Piteå

Häcken

13

3

6

16

22

41

5

20

28

8

⚽2

Kafaji

11

⚽

Larisey

13

Murphy

14

▼

Michael

21

▼

Aronsson

12

Andersson

15

Löfqvist

6

▼

5

8

7

22

▼

Andersson

10

Imo

Manager: S. Carlsson

46'▲C. Edlund←▼F. Ikidi Michael

64'▲S. Henriksson←▼R. Aronsson

65'▲Á. Johannesen←▼H. Andersson

80'▲E. Viklund←▼O. Holm

Piteå W substitutes

11Edlund17Henriksson3Johannesen19Viklund1Öhman16Green24Westbom

Manager: R. Vilahamn

Häcken W substitutes

7Zeller14Johansson15Hellekant19Junttila-Nelhage26Larsson27Masaka30Young-Geul