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Pisa vs Parma — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Parma
Parma
2/22/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 25Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pisa40%
×Draw27%
Parma33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.32
Parma
1.18

Pisa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Parma
1.36

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Parma
1.16

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Parma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Parma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
67%
Pisa or Parma
73%
Draw or Parma
60%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
18%
Parma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
73%
Pisa 2+ goals
38%
Pisa 3+ goals
15%
Parma 1+ goals
69%
Parma 2+ goals
33%
Parma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
55%
Parma (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Parma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Parma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Parma attack 1.36 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pisa scores more
40%
level
27%
Parma scores more
33%

Pisa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. LeverbePisaPisa · D
8.2

Match Events

46'
S. Nwankwo← A. Benedyczak
55'
Adrián Bernabé García
56'
I. Touré← R. Gucher
56'
P. Beruatto← H. Hermannsson
57'
Félix Correia← W. Coulibaly
57'
S. Sohm← Adrián Bernabé
66'
Y. Cohen← Ahmed Benali
66'
G. Sibilli← E. Torregrossa
71'
G. Tutino← R. Inglese
73'
Idrissa Toure
77'
Marius Marin
77'
Danilo
82'
G. Masucci← G. Puşcaş
88'
J. Brunetta← F. Vázquez
90+1'
Elias Cobbaut

Possession

46%Pisa

Shots

8Pisa

Pass accuracy

48%Pisa

Statistics

PisaParma
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots13
3Corners9
17Fouls22
Shots
8Total Shots13
3On Target3
3Off Target4
2Blocked6
8Inside Box10
0Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
359Total Passes425
271Accurate Passes344
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls22
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides3

Pisa 0 – 0 Parma

Pisa and Parma drew 0-0 in Serie B on February 22, 2022.

Parma controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.