Pisa 3–0 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cremonese

G. Puşcaş 89'

E. Torregrossa 50', 9' (pen)

3/13/2022

Serie B · Round 29Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Pisa42%

×Draw27%

Cremonese31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.11

Pisa

1.34

Cremonese

1.11

Pisa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 115 away

1.48

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Pisa

1.48

Cremonese

1.23

allows per match

Pisa

1.00

Cremonese

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

69%

Pisa or Cremonese

73%

Draw or Cremonese

58%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

19%

Cremonese wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

74%

Pisa 2+ goals

39%

Pisa 3+ goals

15%

Cremonese 1+ goals

67%

Cremonese 2+ goals

30%

Cremonese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

58%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Cremonese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pisa scores more

42%

level

27%

Cremonese scores more

31%

Pisa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Torregrossa

Pisa · F

8.5

Match Events

9'

E. TorregrossaPenalty

14'

Caleb Okoli

34'

Marius Marin

40'

Samuele Birindelli

40'

Emanuele ValeriPenalty awarded

46'

S. Di Carmine← H. Rafia

50'

E. Torregrossa↳ P. Beruatto

55'

C. Buonaiuto← L. Zanimacchia

55'

C. Gondo← D. Ciofani

55'

L. Valzania← N. Fagioli

60'

Emanuele Valeri

65'

Jaime Báez

65'

G. Puşcaş← E. Torregrossa

69'

Giuseppe Sibilli

70'

A. De Vitis← N. Siega

70'

R. Gucher← Ahmed Benali

72'

Ádám Nagy

80'

L. Lucca← G. Sibilli

81'

H. Hermannsson← S. Birindelli

82'

T. Casasola← L. Sernicola

89'

G. Puşcaş↳ Á. Nagy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PisaCremonese

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots13

4Corners10

11Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots13

7On Target3

9Off Target8

0Blocked2

14Inside Box5

2Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

293Total Passes309

191Accurate Passes208

65%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

4Yellow Cards3

7Offsides0