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Pisa vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cremonese
Cremonese
L. Vido 7'
C. Buonaiuto 41'
10/4/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 2Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Pisa42%
×Draw27%
Cremonese31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.11

Pisa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 115 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.20

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
69%
Pisa or Cremonese
73%
Draw or Cremonese
58%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
19%
Cremonese wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
74%
Pisa 2+ goals
39%
Pisa 3+ goals
15%
Cremonese 1+ goals
67%
Cremonese 2+ goals
30%
Cremonese 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
58%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Cremonese defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pisa scores more
42%
level
27%
Cremonese scores more
31%

Pisa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
L. ValzaniaCremoneseCremonese · M
7.6

Match Events

7'
L. Vido↳ M. Marin
30'
C. Buonaiuto← M. Pinato
41'
C. Buonaiuto
46'
F. Deli← M. Ghisolfi
53'
Luca Ravanelli
55'
S. Birindelli← E. Pisano
61'
N. Siega← D. Soddimo
61'
G. Masucci← M. Marin
65'
L. Strizzolo← F. Ceravolo
75'
Luca Strizzolo
76'
Francesco Lisi
77'
Samuele Birindelli
81'
E. Valeri← A. Crescenzi
82'
S. Palombi← L. Vido
82'
A. De Vitis← R. Gucher
82'
Ž. Celar← D. Ciofani
90'
Emanuele Terranova

Possession

52%Pisa

Shots

10Pisa

Pass accuracy

52%Pisa

Statistics

PisaCremonese
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots9
5Corners6
19Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target3
2Off Target4
4Blocked2
8Inside Box5
2Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
372Total Passes348
253Accurate Passes223
68%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides5

Serie B: Pisa 1–1 Cremonese

Pisa and Cremonese drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 4, 2020.

Goals: L. Vido (7'), C. Buonaiuto (41').

Pisa controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.