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Pisa vs como — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
como
como
G. Puşcaş 78', 7'
E. Torregrossa 68' (pen)
E. Gliozzi 63'
4/18/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 35Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Pisa44%
×Draw26%
como30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.46
como
1.15

Pisa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 57 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
como
1.30

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
como
1.44

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
como+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
70%
Pisa or como
74%
Draw or como
56%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
22%
como wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
77%
Pisa 2+ goals
43%
Pisa 3+ goals
18%
como 1+ goals
68%
como 2+ goals
32%
como 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
60%
como (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

como away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + como defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

como attack 1.30 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pisa scores more
44%
level
26%
como scores more
30%

Pisa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
G. PuşcaşPisaPisa · F
8.9

Match Events

7'
G. Puşcaş↳ E. Torregrossa
55'
Giuseppe Mastinu
57'
A. Ciciretti← F. Nardi
63'
E. Gliozzi↳ A. La Gumina
68'
E. TorregrossaPenalty
70'
G. Sibilli← E. Torregrossa
70'
L. Lucca← Ahmed Benali
73'
A. Gabrielloni← A. La Gumina
73'
L. Vignali← M. Varnier
76'
A. De Vitis← G. Mastinu
78'
G. Puşcaş↳ L. Lucca
79'
E. Kabashi← T. Arrigoni
79'
Álex Blanco← A. Iovine
84'
Y. Cohen← M. Marin
85'
I. Touré← G. Puşcaş
90+7'
Pietro Beruatto
90'
Idrissa Toure
90+7'
Alessandro Bellemo

Possession

46%Pisa

Shots

18Pisa

Pass accuracy

49%Pisa

Statistics

Pisacomo
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots15
6Corners7
12Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots15
6On Target5
9Off Target8
3Blocked2
13Inside Box11
5Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
344Total Passes403
249Accurate Passes301
72%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Serie B: Pisa 3–1 como

Pisa beat como 3-1 in Serie B on April 18, 2022.

Goals: G. Puşcaş (7', 78'), E. Gliozzi (63'), E. Torregrossa (68' pen).

como controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.