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Pikine vs Douanes — Ligue 1 2019

Pikine
Pikine
FT
0 – 2
Douanes
Douanes
1/19/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pikine40%
×Draw34%
Douanes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pikine
0.96
Douanes
0.70

Pikine creates 37% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pikine
0.89
Douanes
0.76

allows per match

Pikine
0.63
Douanes
1.02

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par
Douanes+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

Douanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pikine or draw
74%
Pikine or Douanes
66%
Draw or Douanes
60%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+
15%
Douanes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals
62%
Pikine 2+ goals
25%
Pikine 3+ goals
7%
Douanes 1+ goals
50%
Douanes 2+ goals
16%
Douanes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)
61%
Douanes (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

Douanes away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + Douanes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Douanes attack 0.76 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pikine scores more
40%
level
34%
Douanes scores more
26%

Pikine at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Pikine 0–2 Douanes

Douanes beat Pikine 2-0 in Ligue 1 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.