Piast Gliwice 1–2 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lech Poznan

P. Dziczek 43' (pen)

F. Marchwiński 54', 46'

7/22/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Piast Gliwice39%

×Draw26%

Lech Poznan35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.25

Piast Gliwice

1.34

Lech Poznan

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

1.51

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.51

Lech Poznan

1.50

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

1.00

Lech Poznan

1.18

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.29scores less

Lech Poznan-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

65%

Piast Gliwice or Lech Poznan

74%

Draw or Lech Poznan

61%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

18%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

74%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

39%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

15%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

71%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

36%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

53%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.18 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.51 + Lech Poznan defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lech Poznan attack 1.50 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

39%

level

26%

Lech Poznan scores more

35%

Piast Gliwice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Marchwiński

Lech Poznan · M

9.2

Match Events

13'

Ariel Mosór

22'

Jesper Karlström

43'

P. DziczekPenalty

46'

F. Marchwiński↳ Joel Pereira

54'

F. Marchwiński↳ K. Velde

55'

Afonso Sousa← J. Karlström

55'

A. Sobiech← M. Ishak

55'

D. Hotić← A. Ba Loua

59'

S. Krykun← Jorge Félix

61'

Radosław Murawski

71'

B. Douglas← R. Murawski

72'

D. Kądzior← M. Ameyaw

81'

F. Szymczak← K. Velde

87'

M. Bykowski← P. Dziczek

90+4'

Artur Sobiech

90+1'

Afonso Sousa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PiastLech

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots7

3.92Expected Goals (xG)0.35

4Corners1

9Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots7

5On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked3

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

358Total Passes564

252Accurate Passes471

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1