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Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
Canc
00:00
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
2/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Piast Gliwice59%
×Draw22%
Korona Kielce19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.92
Korona Kielce
1.00

Piast Gliwice creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.67
Korona Kielce
1.33

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
0.67
Korona Kielce
2.17

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par
Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
81%
Piast Gliwice or Korona Kielce
78%
Draw or Korona Kielce
41%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
35%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
85%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
57%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
30%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
63%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
26%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
75%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.67 + Korona Kielce defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Korona Kielce attack 1.33 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
59%
level
22%
Korona Kielce scores more
19%

Piast Gliwice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Piast Gliwice face Korona Kielce (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Piast Gliwice hosting Korona Kielce. Match starts February 3, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Piast Gliwice host Korona Kielce at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.