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Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2018

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
11/3/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Piast Gliwice44%
×Draw26%
Korona Kielce30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.46
Korona Kielce
1.14

Piast Gliwice creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.29
Korona Kielce
1.24

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
1.04
Korona Kielce
1.64

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.37scores less
Korona Kielce-0.36scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
70%
Piast Gliwice or Korona Kielce
74%
Draw or Korona Kielce
56%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
22%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
77%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
43%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
18%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
68%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
32%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
60%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.64 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.29 + Korona Kielce defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Korona Kielce attack 1.24 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
44%
level
26%
Korona Kielce scores more
30%

Piast Gliwice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Piast Gliwice 0–0 Korona Kielce

Piast Gliwice and Korona Kielce drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.