Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 23+ matches
Piast Gliwice46%
Jagiellonia30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Piast Gliwice creates 30% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Piast Gliwice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches
Jagiellonia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Piast Gliwice attack 1.51 + Jagiellonia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62
Jagiellonia attack 1.49 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Piast Gliwice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsJagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona KielcePiast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Wisla Krakow
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Radomiak Radom
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta KrakówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Piast Gliwice host Jagiellonia on Saturday, 23 April 2022 at 15:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Ekstraklasa: Piast Gliwice 2–1 Jagiellonia
Piast Gliwice beat Jagiellonia 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 23, 2022.
Goals: J. Holúbek (47'), J. Czerwiński (53'), B. Bida (66').
Jagiellonia controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 11.
The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.