Phrae United vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
Phrae United48%
Chiangmai FC26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Phrae United creates 44% more chances
Season form · 104 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Phrae United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Phrae United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches
Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Phrae United attack 1.65 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54
Chiangmai FC attack 1.09 + Phrae United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Phrae United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
PTT Rayong
Trat FCChiangmai FC
Khonkaen
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Samut Sakhon FC
Army United
Lampang FC
Sisaket
Rayong FC
Thai Honda FC
Kasetsart FC
Krabi FC
Ang Thong FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Phrae United host Chiangmai FC on Saturday, 24 October 2020 at 12:00. The match is part of the Thai League 2 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Phrae United vs Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC beat Phrae United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on October 24, 2020.
Goals: A. Phengbanrai (29'), D. Nieblas (60'), N. Srisuwan (62'), A. Sukchuai (74').
The match was played at Huaimah Stadium in Huai Ma.