Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Phoenix Rising vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
5/11/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Casino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Phoenix Rising55%
×Draw22%
Rio Grande Valley23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.92
Rio Grande Valley
1.15

Phoenix Rising creates 67% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 93 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
77%
Phoenix Rising or Rio Grande Valley
78%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
45%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
32%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
85%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
57%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
30%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
68%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
32%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
71%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
55%
level
22%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
23%

Phoenix Rising at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 3–1 Rio Grande Valley

Phoenix Rising beat Rio Grande Valley 3-1 in USL Championship on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Casino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona).