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Phoenix Rising vs Oakland Roots — USL Championship 2026

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots
3/24/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Phoenix Rising54%
×Draw22%
Oakland Roots24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.97
Oakland Roots
1.25

Phoenix Rising creates 58% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 93 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Oakland Roots
1.47

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Oakland Roots
1.77

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Oakland Roots+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Oakland Roots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
76%
Phoenix Rising or Oakland Roots
78%
Draw or Oakland Roots
46%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
31%
Oakland Roots wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
86%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
58%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
31%
Oakland Roots 1+ goals
71%
Oakland Roots 2+ goals
36%
Oakland Roots 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
69%
Oakland Roots (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Oakland Roots away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.77 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Oakland Roots defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Oakland Roots attack 1.47 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
54%
level
22%
Oakland Roots scores more
24%

Phoenix Rising at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phoenix Rising vs Oakland Roots

Phoenix Rising beat Oakland Roots 1-0 in USL Championship on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington in Phoenix, Arizona.