Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2026

Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
Canc
20:00
New England Revolution
New England Revolution
11/12/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Philadelphia Union54%
×Draw22%
New England Revolution24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union
1.89
New England Revolution
1.18

Philadelphia Union creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union
1.48
New England Revolution
1.24

allows per match

Philadelphia Union
1.11
New England Revolution
2.30

finishing

Philadelphia Union+0.19scores more
New England Revolution-0.16scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union ↓

New England Revolution →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union or draw
76%
Philadelphia Union or New England Revolution
78%
Draw or New England Revolution
46%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
31%
New England Revolution wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
85%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
56%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
29%
New England Revolution 1+ goals
69%
New England Revolution 2+ goals
33%
New England Revolution 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
69%
New England Revolution (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.30 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union attack 1.48 + New England Revolution defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.89

New England Revolution attack 1.24 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Philadelphia Union scores more
54%
level
22%
New England Revolution scores more
24%

Philadelphia Union at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution — Match Preview

Philadelphia Union face New England Revolution on November 12, 2023 in this Major League Soccer fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Philadelphia Union host New England Revolution at Subaru Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.