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Philadelphia Union II vs New York RB II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
New York RB II
New York RB II
6/26/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 20Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Philadelphia Union II45%
×Draw22%
New York RB II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.98
New York RB II
1.67

Philadelphia Union II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 40 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
New York RB II
1.93

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
New York RB II
1.95

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
New York RB II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

New York RB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
67%
Philadelphia Union II or New York RB II
78%
Draw or New York RB II
55%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
25%
New York RB II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
86%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
59%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
31%
New York RB II 1+ goals
81%
New York RB II 2+ goals
50%
New York RB II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
58%
New York RB II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

New York RB II away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + New York RB II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

New York RB II attack 1.93 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
45%
level
22%
New York RB II scores more
33%

Philadelphia Union II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philadelphia Union II vs New York RB II

New York RB II beat Philadelphia Union II 4-1 in MLS Next Pro on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.