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Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New York City II
New York City II
8/4/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 27Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Philadelphia Union II46%
×Draw21%
New York City II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
2.04
New York City II
1.72

Philadelphia Union II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 49 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
New York City II
2.02

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
New York City II
2.08

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
New York City II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

New York City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
67%
Philadelphia Union II or New York City II
79%
Draw or New York City II
54%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
26%
New York City II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
87%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
60%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
33%
New York City II 1+ goals
82%
New York City II 2+ goals
51%
New York City II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
58%
New York City II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

New York City II away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + New York City II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

New York City II attack 2.02 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
46%
level
21%
New York City II scores more
33%

Philadelphia Union II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philadelphia Union II 2 – 0 New York City II

Philadelphia Union II beat New York City II 2-0 in MLS Next Pro on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania.