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Philadelphia Union II vs Connecticut FC — MLS Next Pro 2022

Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
Preview
19:00
Connecticut FC
Connecticut FC
8/23/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSubaru Park
44%
Philadelphia Union II
model favours
44%22%35%

91% of Connecticut FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Philadelphia Union II44%
×Draw22%
Connecticut FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philadelphia Union II
1.94
Connecticut FC
1.71

Philadelphia Union II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II
2.00
Connecticut FC
2.00

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II
1.42
Connecticut FC
1.88

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par
Connecticut FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Connecticut FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw
65%
Philadelphia Union II or Connecticut FC
78%
Draw or Connecticut FC
56%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
24%
Connecticut FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
86%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
58%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
30%
Connecticut FC 1+ goals
82%
Connecticut FC 2+ goals
51%
Connecticut FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
56%
Connecticut FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Connecticut FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Connecticut FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Connecticut FC attack 2.00 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more
44%
level
22%
Connecticut FC scores more
35%

Philadelphia Union II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Connecticut FC’s matches
  • Connecticut FC have scored in 8 games running
  • 36% of Connecticut FC’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DWLWL
FC
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philadelphia Union II face Connecticut FC (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Philadelphia Union II hosting Connecticut FC. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Philadelphia Union II host Connecticut FC at Subaru Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.