Philadelphia Union II 1–1 Columbus Crew II

Philadelphia Union II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Columbus Crew II

8/26/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 33Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Philadelphia Union II47%

×Draw22%

Columbus Crew II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia Union IIExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.60

Philadelphia Union II

2.01

Columbus Crew II

1.60

Philadelphia Union II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

1.78

1.42

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II

2.00

Columbus Crew II

1.78

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.42

Columbus Crew II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Columbus Crew II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Columbus Crew II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw

69%

Philadelphia Union II or Columbus Crew II

78%

Draw or Columbus Crew II

53%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

27%

Columbus Crew II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

87%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

59%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

32%

Columbus Crew II 1+ goals

80%

Columbus Crew II 2+ goals

47%

Columbus Crew II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

60%

Columbus Crew II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Columbus Crew II away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Columbus Crew II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.01

Columbus Crew II attack 1.78 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more

47%

level

22%

Columbus Crew II scores more

31%

Philadelphia Union II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff