Philadelphia Union II 1–1 Chicago Fire II

Philadelphia Union II

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chicago Fire II

6/19/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 13Subaru Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Philadelphia Union II50%

×Draw21%

Chicago Fire II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philadelphia Union IIExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.63

Philadelphia Union II

2.15

Chicago Fire II

1.63

Philadelphia Union II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.84

1.42

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Philadelphia Union II

2.00

Chicago Fire II

1.84

allows per match

Philadelphia Union II

1.42

Chicago Fire II

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philadelphia Union II ↓

Chicago Fire II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Philadelphia Union II or draw

70%

Philadelphia Union II or Chicago Fire II

79%

Draw or Chicago Fire II

50%

Winning margin

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

29%

Chicago Fire II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

88%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

63%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

36%

Chicago Fire II 1+ goals

80%

Chicago Fire II 2+ goals

48%

Chicago Fire II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

63%

Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philadelphia Union II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philadelphia Union II attack 2.00 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Philadelphia Union II scores more

50%

level

21%

Chicago Fire II scores more

30%

Philadelphia Union II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff