PFC Sochi 2–3 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Krylya Sovetov

3/20/2022

Premier League · Round 22Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi51%

×Draw24%

Krylya Sovetov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.14

PFC Sochi

1.74

Krylya Sovetov

1.14

PFC Sochi creates 53% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 106 away

1.69

creates per match

1.03

1.24

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.69

Krylya Sovetov

1.03

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.24

Krylya Sovetov

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

75%

PFC Sochi or Krylya Sovetov

76%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

49%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

28%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

82%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

52%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

25%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

68%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

32%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

67%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.03 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

51%

level

24%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

25%

PFC Sochi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff