PFC Sochi 2–0 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

PFC Sochi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

9/30/2019

Premier League · Round 11Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PFC Sochi48%

×Draw25%

Akhmat Grozny27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PFC SochiExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

PFC Sochi

1.58

Akhmat Grozny

1.13

PFC Sochi creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 121 away

1.69

creates per match

1.01

1.24

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

PFC Sochi

1.69

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

PFC Sochi

1.24

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PFC Sochi ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

PFC Sochi or draw

73%

PFC Sochi or Akhmat Grozny

75%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

52%

Winning margin

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

25%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

79%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

47%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

21%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

68%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

31%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

64%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PFC Sochi at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PFC Sochi attack 1.69 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + PFC Sochi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PFC Sochi scores more

48%

level

25%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

27%

PFC Sochi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff