Pevidem 1–1 São João Ver: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Pevidem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

São João Ver

9/18/2021

Liga 3 · Round 4Campo Gémeos Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pevidem30%

×Draw27%

São João Ver43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PevidemExpected goals in this matchSão João Ver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.38

Pevidem

1.11

São João Ver

1.38

São João Ver creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 56 away

0.79

creates per match

1.05

1.71

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Pevidem

0.79

São João Ver

1.05

allows per match

Pevidem

1.71

São João Ver

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pevidem+0.00on par

São João Ver+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pevidem ↓

São João Ver →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pevidem or draw

57%

Pevidem or São João Ver

73%

Draw or São João Ver

70%

Winning margin

Pevidem wins by 2+

12%

São João Ver wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pevidem 1+ goals

67%

Pevidem 2+ goals

30%

Pevidem 3+ goals

10%

São João Ver 1+ goals

75%

São João Ver 2+ goals

40%

São João Ver 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pevidem (draw refunded)

41%

São João Ver (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pevidem at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

São João Ver away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pevidem attack 0.79 + São João Ver defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

São João Ver attack 1.05 + Pevidem defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pevidem scores more

30%

level

27%

São João Ver scores more

43%

São João Ver at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "São João Ver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff