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Petržalka W vs GFC Topoľčany W — I Liga - Women 2020

Petržalka W
Petržalka W
FT
1 – 1
GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
9/4/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 4Štadión FC Petržalka 1898

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Petržalka W58%
×Draw18%
GFC Topoľčany W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petržalka W
2.74
GFC Topoľčany W
1.75

Petržalka W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Petržalka W
1.48
GFC Topoľčany W
1.19

allows per match

Petržalka W
2.31
GFC Topoľčany W
4.00

finishing

Petržalka W+0.00on par
GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petržalka W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Petržalka W or draw
76%
Petržalka W or GFC Topoľčany W
82%
Draw or GFC Topoľčany W
42%

Winning margin

Petržalka W wins by 2+
38%
GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petržalka W 1+ goals
93%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
75%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
51%
GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
83%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
52%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Petržalka W (draw refunded)
71%
GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petržalka W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petržalka W attack 1.48 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.74

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Petržalka W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Petržalka W scores more
58%
level
18%
GFC Topoľčany W scores more
24%

Petržalka W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Petržalka W 1–1 GFC Topoľčany W

Petržalka W and GFC Topoľčany W drew 1-1 in I Liga - Women on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión FC Petržalka 1898 in Bratislava.