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Petrovac vs FK Mladost Podgorica — First League 2019

Petrovac
Petrovac
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
8/31/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion pod Malim brdom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Petrovac43%
×Draw28%
FK Mladost Podgorica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.32
FK Mladost Podgorica
1.02

Petrovac creates 29% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 34 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.26
FK Mladost Podgorica
0.82

allows per match

Petrovac
1.23
FK Mladost Podgorica
1.38

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
71%
Petrovac or FK Mladost Podgorica
72%
Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica
57%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
20%
FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
73%
Petrovac 2+ goals
38%
Petrovac 3+ goals
15%
FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
64%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
27%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
60%
FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.82 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petrovac scores more
43%
level
28%
FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
29%

Petrovac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petrovac vs FK Mladost Podgorica

FK Mladost Podgorica beat Petrovac 3-0 in First League on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Malim brdom in Petrovac na Moru.