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Petrovac vs Arsenal Tivat — First League 2019

Petrovac
Petrovac
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
11/11/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Petrovac42%
×Draw27%
Arsenal Tivat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.36
Arsenal Tivat
1.11

Petrovac creates 23% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 74 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
0.99

allows per match

Petrovac
1.23
Arsenal Tivat
1.47

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Arsenal Tivat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
69%
Petrovac or Arsenal Tivat
73%
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
58%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
20%
Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
74%
Petrovac 2+ goals
39%
Petrovac 3+ goals
16%
Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
67%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
30%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 124 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.26 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arsenal Tivat attack 0.99 + Petrovac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Petrovac scores more
42%
level
27%
Arsenal Tivat scores more
31%

Petrovac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Petrovac 1–1 Arsenal Tivat

Petrovac and Arsenal Tivat drew 1-1 in First League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš in Petrovac na Moru.