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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
CANC
08:00
Rapid
Rapid
4/17/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti47%
×Draw27%
Rapid27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.44
Rapid
1.02

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 41% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
1.63
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti
0.67
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw
73%
Petrolul Ploiesti or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
53%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
23%
Rapid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
76%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
42%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
18%
Rapid 1+ goals
64%
Rapid 2+ goals
27%
Rapid 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
64%
Rapid (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.63 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rapid attack 1.38 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
47%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
27%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Rapid — Match Preview

Petrolul Ploiesti face Rapid on April 17, 2020 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.