Petrocub 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol: Result & Stats

Petrocub

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheriff Tiraspol

5/3/2023

Cupa · Semi-finalsStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Petrocub64%

×Draw18%

Sheriff Tiraspol18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrocubExpected goals in this matchSheriff Tiraspol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.31

Petrocub

2.56

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.31

Petrocub creates 95% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

4.46

creates per match

2.00

0.62

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Petrocub

4.46

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.00

allows per match

Petrocub

0.62

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw

82%

Petrocub or Sheriff Tiraspol

82%

Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol

36%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+

43%

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals

92%

Petrocub 2+ goals

72%

Petrocub 3+ goals

46%

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

73%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

38%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)

78%

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 4.46, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 4.46 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.56

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.00 + Petrocub defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Petrocub scores more

64%

level

18%

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

18%

Petrocub at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff