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Petrocub vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Super Liga 2026

Petrocub
Petrocub
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
4/30/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Petrocub37%
×Draw26%
Sheriff Tiraspol37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrocub
1.33
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 92 away

creates per match

Petrocub
2.16
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.10

allows per match

Petrocub
0.60
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw
63%
Petrocub or Sheriff Tiraspol
74%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
63%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+
16%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals
74%
Petrocub 2+ goals
38%
Petrocub 3+ goals
15%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
74%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
39%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)
49%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.60 · 101 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.16 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.10 + Petrocub defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Petrocub scores more
37%
level
26%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
37%

Petrocub at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Petrocub 1–1 Sheriff Tiraspol

Petrocub and Sheriff Tiraspol drew 1-1 in Super Liga on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Hînceşti.