Petrocub 2–2 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

Petrocub

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sfîntul Gheorghe

4/7/2019

Super Liga · Round 4Stadionul Orăşenesc (Hînceşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Petrocub55%

×Draw23%

Sfîntul Gheorghe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrocubExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.02

Petrocub

1.78

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.02

Petrocub creates 75% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

2.16

creates per match

1.44

0.61

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Petrocub

2.16

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.44

allows per match

Petrocub

0.61

Sfîntul Gheorghe

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw

78%

Petrocub or Sfîntul Gheorghe

77%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

45%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+

31%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals

83%

Petrocub 2+ goals

53%

Petrocub 3+ goals

26%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

64%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

27%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)

72%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.61 · 102 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.16 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 1.44 + Petrocub defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Petrocub scores more

55%

level

23%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

22%

Petrocub at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff