Petrocub 2–1 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats | Cupa

Petrocub

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Milsami Orhei

T. Lungu 45'

V. Posmac 43'

I. Ndon 12'

4/3/2025

Cupa · Quarter-finalsStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Petrocub77%

×Draw13%

Milsami Orhei10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrocubExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.03

Petrocub

3.06

Milsami Orhei

1.03

Petrocub creates 197% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

4.46

creates per match

1.44

0.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Petrocub

4.46

Milsami Orhei

1.44

allows per match

Petrocub

0.62

Milsami Orhei

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw

90%

Petrocub or Milsami Orhei

87%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

23%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+

57%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals

95%

Petrocub 2+ goals

80%

Petrocub 3+ goals

57%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

64%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

28%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)

89%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 4.46, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 4.46 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.06

Milsami Orhei attack 1.44 + Petrocub defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Petrocub scores more

77%

level

13%

Milsami Orhei scores more

10%

Petrocub at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Ndon

20'

T. Glišović← D. Muringen

43'

V. Posmac

45'

T. Lungu

46'

P. Popescu← D. Spătaru

65'

M. Lupan← M. Căruntu

74'

A. Antoniuc← K. Kalabatama

74'

79'

81'

87'

Petrocub

Milsami

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: E. Blănuţă

46'▲P. Popescu←▼D. Spătaru

65'▲M. Lupan←▼M. Căruntu

79'▲D. Demian←▼C. Ngah

87'▲C. Carp←▼V. Bogaciuc

Petrocub substitutes

PopescuLupanDemianCarpBykovskiyGutiumDialloPăscăluțăBivolCovalGuera

Manager: I. Picuşceac

20'▲T. Glišović←▼D. Muringen

74'▲A. Antoniuc←▼K. Kalabatama

74'▲V. Luchiță←▼I. Ndon

81'▲I. Arhirii←▼D. Lisu

Milsami Orhei substitutes

GlišovićAntoniucLuchițăArhiriiVornicGhimpGopeyZavalișca