Petrocub 3–0 Dinamo-Auto: Result & Stats

Petrocub

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo-Auto

V. Ambros 54'

A. Bejan 32'

V. Mudrac 10'

8/3/2019

Super Liga · Round 16Stadionul Orăşenesc (Hînceşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petrocub65%

×Draw20%

Dinamo-Auto16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrocubExpected goals in this matchDinamo-Auto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.98

Petrocub

2.19

Dinamo-Auto

0.98

Petrocub creates 123% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 55 away

2.15

creates per match

1.35

0.61

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Petrocub

2.15

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

allows per match

Petrocub

0.61

Dinamo-Auto

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrocub+0.00on par

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrocub ↓

Dinamo-Auto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Petrocub or draw

84%

Petrocub or Dinamo-Auto

80%

Draw or Dinamo-Auto

35%

Winning margin

Petrocub wins by 2+

41%

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Petrocub 1+ goals

89%

Petrocub 2+ goals

64%

Petrocub 3+ goals

37%

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Petrocub (draw refunded)

80%

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrocub at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.61 · 101 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrocub attack 2.15 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + Petrocub defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Petrocub scores more

65%

level

20%

Dinamo-Auto scores more

16%

Petrocub at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petrocub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

V. Mudrac

32'

A. Bejan

37'

I. Urvantev

54'

V. Ambros

61'

M. Mihaliov

65'

I. Damaşcan← D. Taras

65'

N. Novruzov← I. Bugaiov

69'

I. Ţurcan← V. Gulceac

73'

V. Nihaev← A. Cobeţ

75'

A. Rusu← V. Ambros

78'

79'

I. Damascan

89'

M. Gorbakov← V. Macriţchii

Petrocub

Dinamo-Auto

12

Straistar

22

Diulgher

28

▼

2

4

19

11

▼

Cobeţ

6

Bilinschi

9

▼

27

20

33

21

90

4

⚽

Mudrac

17

Cojocari

10

⚽

Bejan

6

▼

Taras

9

⚽

▼

Ambros

44

Guera

2

Ndzomo

18

▼

Gulceac

Manager: L. Popescu

65'▲I. Damaşcan←▼D. Taras

69'▲I. Ţurcan←▼V. Gulceac

75'▲A. Rusu←▼V. Ambros

Petrocub substitutes

77Damaşcan8Ţurcan5Rusu16Railean97Tîșcul13Oprea

Manager: I. Dobrovolskiy

65'▲N. Novruzov←▼I. Bugaiov

73'▲V. Nihaev←▼A. Cobeţ

89'▲M. Gorbakov←▼V. Macriţchii

Dinamo-Auto substitutes

10Novruzov17Nihaev18Gorbakov5Pačko13Gadevici16Bardîș