Peterhead 0–1 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stenhousemuir

M. McGuigan 18'

3/23/2021

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBalmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peterhead30%

×Draw21%

Stenhousemuir48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.06

Peterhead

1.61

Stenhousemuir

2.06

Stenhousemuir creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

1.80

2.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Peterhead

1.83

Stenhousemuir

1.80

allows per match

Peterhead

2.33

Stenhousemuir

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

52%

Peterhead or Stenhousemuir

79%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

70%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

14%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

80%

Peterhead 2+ goals

48%

Peterhead 3+ goals

22%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

87%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

61%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

39%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.83 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stenhousemuir attack 1.80 + Peterhead defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peterhead scores more

30%

level

21%

Stenhousemuir scores more

48%

Stenhousemuir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

23'

36'

39'

40'

42'

51'

55'

73'

75'

76'

T. Collins← M. McGuigan

80'

D. Strachan← K. Bailey

86'

A. McCarthy

Peterhead

Stenhousemuir

1

2

4

5

7

6

3

25

⚽

▼

McGuigan

10

Hopkirk

12

Biabi

22

▼

1

5

2

4

32

▼

Bailey

3

Conroy

8

▼

12

14

16

9

▼

Layne

Manager: J. McInally

23'▲B. Armour←▼S. Brown

73'▲K. Mcgrath←▼I. Layne

80'▲D. Strachan←▼K. Bailey

Peterhead substitutes

15Armour20Mcgrath19Strachan27Wilson18Brown

Manager: D. Irons

75'▲G. Spence←▼T. Muir

76'▲T. Collins←▼M. McGuigan

Stenhousemuir substitutes

11Spence26Collins21Hodge9Grigor20Fairley17Erskine8Halleran24McQueen

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir beat Peterhead 1-0 in FA Cup on March 23, 2021.

Goals: M. McGuigan (18').

The match was played at Balmoor Stadium in Peterhead.

Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir