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Peterhead vs Queen of the South — League #183 2026

Peterhead
Peterhead
Preview
14:00
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
10/10/2026League #183League #183 · Round 10Balmoor
Big match
46%
Queen of the South
model favours
31%24%46%

Peterhead score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Peterhead31%
×Draw24%
Queen of the South46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
1.36
Queen of the South
1.71

Queen of the South creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.59

allows per match

Peterhead
1.83
Queen of the South
1.48

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
54%
Peterhead or Queen of the South
76%
Draw or Queen of the South
69%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
13%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
74%
Peterhead 2+ goals
39%
Peterhead 3+ goals
16%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
82%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
51%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
40%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.25 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Peterhead defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterhead scores more
31%
level
24%
Queen of the South scores more
46%

Queen of the South at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Queen of the South score first in only 13% of matches
  • 52% of Queen of the South’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Peterhead’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Peterhead
LWLWW
South
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peterhead host Queen of the South

October 10, 2026: Peterhead take on Queen of the South in League #183. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peterhead host Queen of the South at Balmoor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.