Peterhead 1–3 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Peterhead

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Queen of the South

K. Shanks 45+3' (pen)

C. Murray 84'

J. Kabia 79'

R. Paton 55'

1/28/2023

League #183 · Round 23Balmoor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Peterhead31%

×Draw24%

Queen of the South46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterheadExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.71

Peterhead

1.36

Queen of the South

1.71

Queen of the South creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

1.25

creates per match

1.59

1.83

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Peterhead

1.25

Queen of the South

1.59

allows per match

Peterhead

1.83

Queen of the South

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw

54%

Peterhead or Queen of the South

76%

Draw or Queen of the South

69%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+

13%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals

74%

Peterhead 2+ goals

39%

Peterhead 3+ goals

16%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

82%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

51%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)

40%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.25 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Peterhead defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peterhead scores more

31%

level

24%

Queen of the South scores more

46%

Queen of the South at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Jack Brown← Jordon Brown

45+2'

P. McKay

45+3'

K. ShanksPenalty

49'

H. Cochrane

55'

R. Paton↳ J. Todd

60'

C. Murray← H. Cochrane

60'

J. Kabia← M. Ruth

67'

L. Gibson← K. McKechnie

79'

J. Kabia

80'

L. Bisland← Jason Brown

82'

C. McLeod← Jack Brown

82'

D. McKay← E. East

84'

C. Murray

88'

L. Bisland

Peterhead

Queen

25

Dąbrowski

17

Hendrie

5

McKay

16

▼

East

35

Brydon

8

A

Todd

15

McGrory

6

▼

Cochrane

18

▼

McKechnie

7

⚽

Paton

19

▼

Ruth

1

McKenzie

6

Strachan

5

▼

25

8

22

2

42

18

▼

Brown

26

Oyinsan

10

⚽

Shanks

Manager: D. Robertson

25'▲Jack Brown←▼Jordon Brown

80'▲L. Bisland←▼Jason Brown

82'▲C. McLeod←▼Jack Brown

Peterhead substitutes

12Brown24Bisland20McLeod4McDonald27Wood39Gabriel15Strachan29Melingui23Walusimbi

Manager: M. Bartley

60'▲C. Murray←▼H. Cochrane

60'▲J. Kabia←▼M. Ruth

67'▲L. Gibson←▼K. McKechnie

82'▲D. McKay←▼E. East

Queen of the South substitutes

11Murray22Kabia27Gibson2McKay9Reilly21McMahon42Botterill20Irving26Muir