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Peterhead vs Dundee II — League #182 2026

Peterhead
Peterhead
Preview
18:45
Dundee II
Dundee II
8/25/2026League #182League #182 · Group Stage - 2Balmoor
72%
Peterhead
model favours
72%17%11%

Peterhead score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peterhead72%
×Draw17%
Dundee II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterhead
2.42
Dundee II
0.83

Peterhead creates 192% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Peterhead
1.33
Dundee II
0.67

allows per match

Peterhead
1.00
Dundee II
3.50

finishing

Peterhead+0.00on par
Dundee II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterhead ↓

Dundee II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Peterhead or draw
89%
Peterhead or Dundee II
83%
Draw or Dundee II
28%

Winning margin

Peterhead wins by 2+
49%
Dundee II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Peterhead 1+ goals
91%
Peterhead 2+ goals
69%
Peterhead 3+ goals
43%
Dundee II 1+ goals
56%
Dundee II 2+ goals
20%
Dundee II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peterhead (draw refunded)
87%
Dundee II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterhead at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dundee II away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterhead attack 1.33 + Dundee II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Dundee II attack 0.67 + Peterhead defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Peterhead scores more
72%
level
17%
Dundee II scores more
11%

Peterhead at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Peterhead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 31% of Peterhead’s matches
  • Peterhead sit 17, Dundee II 32 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Peterhead
LWLWW
II
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterhead vs Dundee II — Match Preview

Peterhead face Dundee II on August 25, 2026 in this League #182 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peterhead host Dundee II at Balmoor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.