Peterborough 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

H. Kyprianou 21'

O. Beckles 33'

9/16/2023

League One · Round 8Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Peterborough51%

×Draw23%

Leyton Orient26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.28

Peterborough

1.86

Leyton Orient

1.28

Peterborough creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

1.05

1.51

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Peterborough

1.91

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Peterborough

1.51

Leyton Orient

1.81

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Peterborough+0.17scores more

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

74%

Peterborough or Leyton Orient

77%

Draw or Leyton Orient

49%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

29%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

84%

Peterborough 2+ goals

55%

Peterborough 3+ goals

28%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

37%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

66%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.91 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.86

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Peterborough defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Peterborough scores more

51%

level

23%

Leyton Orient scores more

26%

Peterborough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

H. Kyprianou

Peterborough · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

Peter Kioso

21'

H. Kyprianou↳ J. Knight

33'

O. Beckles↳ J. Graham

43'

Darren Pratley

46'

J. Randall← R. De Havilland

46'

D. Ajiboye← K. Poku

58'

E. Galbraith← G. Moncur

63'

R. Hunt← T. Archibald

75'

J. Brown← D. Pratley

75'

A. Drinan← J. Pigott

82'

J. Wakeling← E. Mason-Clark

82'

Z. Sturge← H. Burrows

84'

Hector Kyprianou

86'

Jordan Graham

89'

Idris El Mizouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughLeyton

Overview

67%Possession33%

7Total Shots6

6Corners3

8Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots6

5On Target2

0Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

0Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

495Total Passes247

395Accurate Passes156

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2