Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Peterborough vs Bury — League One 2018

Peterborough
Peterborough
Canc
15:00
Bury
Bury
2/22/2020League OneLeague One · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peterborough57%
×Draw24%
Bury19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.74
Bury
0.89

Peterborough creates 96% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 5 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.88
Bury
0.60

allows per match

Peterborough
1.17
Bury
1.60

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Bury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
81%
Peterborough or Bury
76%
Draw or Bury
43%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
32%
Bury wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
82%
Peterborough 2+ goals
52%
Peterborough 3+ goals
25%
Bury 1+ goals
59%
Bury 2+ goals
22%
Bury 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
75%
Bury (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Bury away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Bury defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bury attack 0.60 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Peterborough scores more
57%
level
24%
Bury scores more
19%

Peterborough at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peterborough vs Bury — Match Preview

Peterborough face Bury on February 22, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.