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Petare FC vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

Petare FC
Petare FC
FT
4 – 1
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
3/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Petare FC45%
×Draw27%
Yaracuy FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petare FC
1.40
Yaracuy FC
1.04

Petare FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 47 away

creates per match

Petare FC
1.46
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

Petare FC
0.77
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw
72%
Petare FC or Yaracuy FC
73%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
55%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+
22%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals
75%
Petare FC 2+ goals
41%
Petare FC 3+ goals
17%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
65%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
28%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)
62%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Petare FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Yaracuy FC scores more
28%

Petare FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petare FC vs Yaracuy FC

Petare FC beat Yaracuy FC 4-1 in Segunda División on March 22, 2018.

The match was played at Cocodrilos Sports Park (Caracas).