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Petare FC vs Marítimo — Segunda División 2018

Petare FC
Petare FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marítimo
Marítimo
3/12/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 1Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petare FC43%
×Draw28%
Marítimo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petare FC
1.27
Marítimo
0.99

Petare FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 55 away

creates per match

Petare FC
1.46
Marítimo
1.22

allows per match

Petare FC
0.77
Marítimo
1.07

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw
71%
Petare FC or Marítimo
72%
Draw or Marítimo
57%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+
19%
Marítimo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals
72%
Petare FC 2+ goals
36%
Petare FC 3+ goals
14%
Marítimo 1+ goals
63%
Marítimo 2+ goals
26%
Marítimo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)
60%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Petare FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Marítimo scores more
29%

Petare FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petare FC vs Marítimo

Petare FC and Marítimo drew 0-0 in Segunda División on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte in Caracas.