Petare FC 3–0 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Petare FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bolívar

5/19/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 10Estadio Nacional Brígido Iriarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Petare FC53%

×Draw27%

Bolívar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petare FCExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

Petare FC

1.41

Bolívar

0.72

Petare FC creates 96% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 55 away

1.46

creates per match

0.67

0.77

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Petare FC

1.46

Bolívar

0.67

allows per match

Petare FC

0.77

Bolívar

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petare FC+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petare FC ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Petare FC or draw

81%

Petare FC or Bolívar

73%

Draw or Bolívar

47%

Winning margin

Petare FC wins by 2+

27%

Bolívar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Petare FC 1+ goals

76%

Petare FC 2+ goals

41%

Petare FC 3+ goals

17%

Bolívar 1+ goals

51%

Bolívar 2+ goals

16%

Bolívar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Petare FC (draw refunded)

74%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petare FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 101 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petare FC attack 1.46 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Petare FC defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Petare FC scores more

53%

level

27%

Bolívar scores more

19%

Petare FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff